combat01_lecture

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combat01_lecture.pdf
%A L. Ingber
%T Statistical Mechanics of Combat (SMC): Mathematical Comparison of Computer Models to Exercise Data
%R SMC Lecture Plates
%I Lester Ingber Research
%D 2001
%O URL https://www.ingber.com/combat01_lecture.pdf
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COVER PAGE
CONTENTS-1
CONTENTS-2
GENERAL DESCRIPTION
Dated Information
Short Description of Project
Compare JANUS(T) and NTC -- Analysis
Prepare JANUS(T) for NTC -- Training
WHAT IS JANUS(T)?
Input
MATHEMATICAL-MODEL COMPARISON PROCESS
JANUS(T) Not Reality
NTC Not Reality
Context-Dependence Of Analysis And Methodology
NTC BATTLEFIELD DATA COLLECTION
Some Problems Qualifying NTC Data
Some NTC Features Relevant to JANUS(T)
MATHEMATICAL PHYSICS APPROACH
Lanchester Theory
Basic Assumption
Generalized Lanchester-Type Theory
Math-Physics of One Variable
Path Integral: Long-Time Distribution
Fitting the Information in the Lagrangian
Example: Lanchester-Like 2-Variable Model
Fitting Killer-Victim Scoreboards
Very Fast Simulated Re-Annealing (VFSR -> ASA)
Empirically Fitting Combat Power Scores
Lagrangian Assessment of Dynamics of Combat
PRELIMINARY NTC STUDY
Preliminary Mathematical Modeling of NTC Data
NTC-Model Interpretation
Model Comparison
3-D View of Path Integral
JANUS(T)/NTC Exit Probabilities (Scoreboard)
JANUS(T) & NTC Attrition Means
JANUS(T) & NTC Attrition Variances
Discussion of Study
SIMULATION EXTRAPOLATIONS
Unit Performance from JANUS(T) NTC Surrogate Model
JOINT TLAM/SLAM PROJECTS
MATHEMATICAL EXTRAPOLATIONS
Fidelity Issues
Human Factors Issues
Other Issues
Super-Variables for Theater Models
CONNECTIONS TO ATTRITION-DRIVEN MODELS
Basic Assumption at Battalion Level
Applications
Reduction to Other Math-Physics Modeling
CANONICAL MOMENTA INDICATORS (CMI)
New Indicators of Combat
Model
Fitted Model
JANUS Attrition & CMI
TO DO
1997 JANUS Update
Attrition Vs Maneuver Warfare
Value of Models and Simulations

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Lester Ingber <ingber@ingber.com>